Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup Dirt Mile

The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile has been in existence for only three years, making its debut as part of the World Thoroughbred Championships in 2007 at Monmouth Park. That year, due to track configuration, the race was run at one mile and seventy yards, and Corinthian came from off the pace to win by open lengths. In the last two years at Santa Anita the race has reverted to its proper one-mile distance, with Albertus Maximus (’08) and former claimer Furthest Land (’09) finding the winner’s circle.

With the Breeders’ Cup returning to Churchill Downs, this race will be run at a “one-turn mile” for the first time. The event should draw a mix of stretch-out sprinters and proven routers more accustomed to running around two turns. Scheduled as Race 5 on Saturday, it will be the first Breeders’ Cup race run over the main track that day, and could give bettors an early indication as to how the track is playing.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: One Mile on Dirt

Post Time: 2:30PM (ET), Saturday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – during the last two race meets there have been 91 races at this distance, producing 24 wire-to-wire winners (26%). The average running line for the winner shows them 2.4 lengths behind the leaders at the second call, and 1.2 lengths back at the third call. Only two winners were able to rally from 10 or more lengths back at the second call.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – no previous editions run at this racetrack.

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – there were 10 winners (11%) who started from the rail, and 37 winners (41%) who started in posts 1-3. During the last two race meets there were only two winners who started outside post 9.

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance no previous editions run at this racetrack.

Betting Angles – During the last two race meets betting favorites won 32 races (35%), and there were just 10 winners at double-digit odds. The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile has yet to produce a winning favorite, and only one has hit the board (Discreet Cat finished 3^rd in 2007). Over the last two years four runners have hit the board at odds of 18/1 or higher, setting up very nice exotic payoffs – $1,636 trifecta and $19,804 superfecta in 2008, and $2,933 trifecta and $6,661 superfecta in 2009. With this year’s race being run at the one-turn mile, runners with good tactical speed, and the ability to carry that speed over a distance of ground, should be given serious consideration.