Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup Juvenile

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is a two-headed monster for owners and trainers. Win this race and you are all but guaranteed to win an Eclipse Award as the nation’s top two-year-old. But moving on from the Juvenile winner’s circle to the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle has been a different story. In 26 years, only Street Sense has been able to pull off the Juvenile-Derby Double. Quick frankly, there are some Juvenile winners who failed to accomplish little of note following their win in the season-ending championship.

The first seven editions of the Juvenile were won by U. S.-based runners, and then came Arazi in 1991. Racing right here at Churchill Downs, this European superstar ran one of the more memorable races in Breeders’ Cup history. Sent away as the betting favorite despite drawing post 14, Arazi was able to secure position and find his stride heading into the far turn, where he unleashed one of the most impressive moves ever seen – blowing past the field as if they were standing still. Arazi would return to the United States twice the following year, failing to come close to his outstanding performance in the Breeders’ Cup – finishing 8^th as the 4/5 favorite in the Kentucky Derby and 11^th as the 7/5 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

It would be ten years before another foreign horse won the Juvenile, but they now show up in force. In the last nine editions of the Juvenile there have been three foreign winners – Vale of York (’09), Wilko (’04) and Johannesburg (’01). A talented juvenile from overseas now has to be respected as a viable contender in this race.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles on dirt

Post Time: 3:55PM (ET), Saturday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – over the last two race meets there have been 88 races run at this distance. There have been 24 wire-to-wire winners (27%), with the average running line showing winners within 2.8 lengths of the leaders at the second call, and just 1.3 lengths behind the leaders after the third call. Only five winners were able to rally from more than 10 lengths back at the second call.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – in six previous editions the only wire-to-wire winner was Is It True back in 1988. The average running line for the Juvenile winner at Churchill Downs shows them 4.5 lengths behind the leaders at the second call and 2.1 lengths back at the third call.

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – in 88 races over the last two race meets there has only been one winner from outside post 9.

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – there have been multiple winners from the rail, while Arazi was able to win from post 14.

Betting Angles – In the early years betting favorites dominated this race, winning 8 of the first 15 editions. Things have changed – for the “bettor.” In the last 11 years only one betting favorite has found the winner’s circle (War Pass in 2007). During that time the average odds on the race winner are 14/1, and there have been four winners at better than 25/1 – Vale of York (30/1), Anees (30/1), Wilko (28/1) and Action This Day (26/1). At Churchill Downs the Juvenile favorite has won 3-of-6 editions, although the last two winners were Street Sense (15/1) and Macho Uno (6/1). All six Juvenile winners at Churchill Downs were on-the-board in their most recent start, with three of them coming off wins. Four winners last raced on conventional dirt (Street Sense, polytrack and Arazi, turf), and the last four winners were coming from races at 1 1/16 miles.