Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies

The Breeders’ Cup is all about drama – the best horses in the world going head-to-head in a season-ending championship. Sometimes the drama is of another sort. That was certainly the case in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Hollywood Park in 1984. The lights on the tote were full aglow when the fillies crossed the wire, with Fran’s Valentine (74/1) in front of Outstandingly (22/1) and Dusty Heart (77/1). Then the lights began to blink – and Fran’s Valentine was disqualified for interference in the stretch and placed 10^th. Had the results stood, she would have been the longest-priced Juvenile Fillies winner in history.

This race has showcased a veritable all-star list of fillies, trainers and jockeys. Star fillies such as Open Mind, Eliza, Phone Chatter, Flanders, My Flag, Countess Diana, Silverbulletday, Storm Flag Flying, Halfbridled, Sweet Catamine, Dreaming of Anna, Indian Blessing and Stardom Bound have graced the winner’s circle. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won this race five times, most recently in 2005 with Folklore, and he has especially enjoyed success in this race at Churchill Downs. In 1994 Lukas sent out the heavy betting favorite Flanders, who won a hard-fought battle with stablemate Serena’s Song. Back in 1988 he pulled off an unprecedented feat – sending out the top three finishers in the Juvenile Fillies at this historic racetrack, doing so for three different owners (Open Mind, Eugene Klein; Darby Shuffle, Joseph Allen; and Lea Lucinda, Calumet Farm).

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles on dirt

Post Time: 6:50 PM (ET), Friday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – over the last two race meets there have been 88 races run at this distance. There have been 24 wire-to-wire winners (27%), with the average running line showing winners within 2.8 lengths of the leaders at the second call, and just 1.3 lengths behind the leaders after the third call. Only five winners were able to rally from more than 10 lengths back at the second call.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – in six previous editions there were two wire-to-wire winners (33%). Open Mind in 1998 rallied from 16 lengths back at the second call (nearly 9 lengths back at the third call) to win, but the last five editions have not seen a winner rally from more than 4 lengths back at the second call.

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – in 88 races over the last two race meets there has only been one winner from outside post 9.

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – post position does not seem to be a major hurdle when it comes to be the best fillies in the world. We have seen winners break from the rail, as well as way out in post 14.

Betting Angles – Overall at Churchill Downs, betting favorites have won only 25-of-88 races at this distance over the last two race meets (28%), but that trend has been thrown to the wind in the Juvenile Fillies. Betting favorites have won 4-of-6 previous editions of this race at Churchill Downs, more than any other Breeders’ Cup race. In the event’s history, favorites have dominated, winning 15-of-26 editions (58%). That being said, it was right here at Churchill Downs in 2000 where Caressing lit up the board at 47/1, the longest-priced winner in the event’s history. Four race winners had won their previous race, while the other two had finished second. All six winners were coming from races at one mile or longer, and five of those raced on conventional dirt (Dreaming of Anna had last raced on turf).