Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The Juvenile Fillies Turf made its debut as part of the World Thoroughbred Championships in 2008 at Santa Anita. Maram won the inaugural edition for trainer Chad Brown and jockey Jose Lezcano. In 2009 it was Tapitsfly winning for Dale Romans and Robbie Albarado. Interestingly enough, both fillies used the Miss Grillo-G3 at Belmont Park as their prep race before the Breeders’ Cup (Maram won that stake; Tapitsfly finished second).

The Juvenile Fillies Turf is run at one mile on the grass, and both previous editions featured full fields of 12. This year Churchill Downs will accommodate up to 14 starters for this race. It will be the first Breeders’ Cup race run over the turf on championship weekend.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: One Mile on turf

Post Time: 4:50PM (ET), Friday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – over the last two race meets there have been 37 races run at this distance, with 8 wire-to-wire winners (22%). The average running line of the winner shows them 3.5 lengths behind the leaders at the second call, and 2.1 lengths back at the third call. There was not a single winner who rallied from more than 9.75 lengths back at the second call, indicating “deep, deep closers” are at a real disadvantage.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – no previous editions run at this racetrack, but there have been six editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Churchill Downs (same course and distance). In six editions of the there has not been a single wire-to-wire winner, with stalkers and closers holding the edge. The average running line of the winner shows them 4.9 lengths behind the leaders at the second call, and 3.7 lengths back at the third call (where only one winner has been within 2.25 lengths of the lead).

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – runners breaking from far outside posts have been at a disadvantage, with only 3-of-37 races won by horses starting outside post 8.

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance no previous editions run at this racetrack, but in six previous editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (same course and distance) post position did not seem to be a major handicapping article. Mile winners came from posts 1, 2, 4, 8, 10 and 11.

Betting Angles – Betting favorites were shut out in the first two editions of the Juvenile Fillies Turf – Laragh finished third in 2008 and Lillie Langtry finished 8^th in 2009. Both previous winners of this race were stakes winners on turf prior to the Breeders’ Cup, with Maram winning the Miss Grillo-G3 and Tapitsfly winning the listed P. G. Johnson Stakes. Both winners had already won at 1 1/16 miles on grass, giving them a strong foundation for this shorter one-mile race.