Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup Mile

This race tends to be a U.S. vs. the World showdown, and so far the sides are pretty even. Home-based runners have won 14 editions of the Mile, while their foreign-based rivals have won 12. The Euros hit a brief dry spell after winning 8 of the first 14 editions, but they climbed back on the podium recently thanks to the superstar Goldikova. This gal has won the last two editions of the Mile, and will be seeking an unprecedented third consecutive trip to the winner’s circle in November.

Two other runners have won back-to-back editions of the Mile, Lure in 1992-93 and Miesque in 1987-88. Lure would finish 9^th as the heavy favorite in his bid for a three-peat in 1994, while Miesque did not attempt the rare feat. In a fascinating tidbit, Miesque was ridden to both Mile victories by Freddy Head – who, as trainer, saddled Goldikova to both her Mile victories.

Da Hoss is the only other horse to win multiple Mile’s, and he did so with a break in-between. After beating the talented Spinning World at Woodbine in 1996, (Spinning World came back to win the Mile in 1997), Da Hoss was sidelined by injury and did not race for nearly two years. He finally made it back to the races at Colonial Downs in October, 1998, narrowly winning an allowance event. Trainer Michael Dickinson appeared to be grasping at straws when he entered Da Hoss in the Mile at Churchill Downs one month later, but the gelding did the impossible, surviving a stretch battle to win his second edition of this championship race. This would be the final start of Da Hoss’s career, and Michael Dickinson would earn his nickname of “Mad Genius.”

Breeders’ Cup Mile facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: One Mile on turf

Post Time: 4:40PM (ET), Saturday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – over the last two race meets there have been 37 races run at this distance, with 8 wire-to-wire winners (22%). The average running line of the winner shows them 3.5 lengths behind the leaders at the second call, and 2.1 lengths back at the third call. There was not a single winner who rallied from more than 9.75 lengths back at the second call, indicating “deep, deep closers” are at a real disadvantage.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – in six previous editions there has not been a single wire-to-wire winner, with stalkers and closers holding the edge. The average running line of the winner shows them 4.9 lengths behind the leaders at the second call, and 3.7 lengths back at the third call (where only one winner has been within 2.25 lengths of the lead).

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – runners breaking from far outside posts have been at a disadvantage, with only 3-of-37 races won by horses starting outside post 8.

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – post position does not seem to be a major handicapping angle in the Mile over this turf course. Winners have come from posts 1, 2, 4, 8, 10 and 11.

Betting Angles – Overall, betting favorites won just 24% of the races at one mile on Churchill’s turf course the last two race meets, and in the Breeders’ Cup Mile favorites are just 1-for-6 (War Chant at 7/2). Favorites are 8-for-26 overall in this event, thanks in large part to consecutive wins by a favored Goldikova. Three of the last eight winners of this event won at 15/1 or higher – Domedriver (26/1), Miesque’s Approval (24/1) and Singletary (16/1). Foreign-based horses won the Mile at Churchill Downs in 1988 and 1994, but the last three have gone to U.S.-based runners. Four times, the Mile winner at Churchill Downs has scored at double-digit odds – Opening Verse (26/1), Miesque’s Approval, Da Hoss (11/1) and Barathea (10/1).  Every Mile winner locally had finished first or second in their previous start, with the exception of Miesque’s Approval who had finished 4^th.