Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup “The Classic”

Wild Again got the ball rolling in 1984, winning the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Classic at Hollywood Park as a 31/1 outsider. Along the way we’ve seen heavy favorites such as Cigar (7/10) win at Belmont Park, and rank outsiders such as Arcangues (133/1) win at Santa Anita. What do those two have in common? They were both ridden by Jerry Bailey. Perhaps no Classic was as memorable as the 2009 edition where super mare Zenyatta swept past the field in deep stretch to keep her incredible unbeaten streak alive. It is expected that she will be back to defend her crown this year at Churchill Downs.

In order to win again Zenyatta will need to run another big race against the best in the world, and she will need to do so over conventional dirt. After two years of racing over the synthetic surface at Oak Tree (Santa Anita) there are many in the racing world anxiously awaiting a return to the natural surface. Lining up to face her will be Blame, the top older horse in the country who has already proven himself over the track in Louisville, as well as Quality Road and a hodge-podge of three-year-olds who have yet to sort themselves out this year. Expect one or more foreign invaders to join the party.

Breeders’ Cup Classic facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: 1 ¼ Miles on dirt

Post Time: 6:45 PM (ET), Saturday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – only two races have been run at this exact distance over the last two years, and they were both Kentucky Derby’s that were contested over a wet racetrack. In both cases each race was won by a horse from off the pace.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – There have been six editions of the Classic run at this track. Black Tie Affair (’91) and Tiznow (’00) were wire-to-wire winners, but every other winner was at least four lengths behind the leaders at the second call.

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – data is too limited

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – There has been only one Classic winner from inside post 5. Three winners (50%) have started in post 11 or 12.

Betting Angles – Betting favorites have not fared well in the Classic at Churchill Downs, with only Alysheba in 1988 winning as the public choice. Since then, there have been two betting favorites finish second (Bernardini and Tabasco Cat), while three betting favorites have finished 6^th (Fusaichi Pegasus, Skip Away and Festin). Foreign runners have yet to break through in this race, but they have performed well on occasion over this racetrack – namely Giant’s Causeway and Swain. Strong current form has been the key to success in Classic’s run at Churchill Downs – five of the six winners won their most recent start. Concern is the only winner to break the mold, having finished second in his previous race. All six Classic winners had raced on dirt in their most recent start, in races at 1 1/8 miles or longer.