Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup Sprint

Horses in the U.S. are bred to run fast, and there is always plenty of speed on display in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Back in 1984 at Hollywood Park Eillo got the ball rolling, stopping the timer in 1:10.20. In 25 subsequent editions of this race only one final time was slower, the 1:10.40 produced by Gulch in 1988 over a sloppy track. In the last eleven years the slowest winning time in the sprint was 1:09.18, posted by Midnight Lute in the slop at Monmouth in 2007. Proving he was a much faster animal, he came right back and won the sprint again in 2008 at Santa Anita, stopping the timer in 1:07.08 – the fastest final time in the history of this race.

Because of the location of the starting gate for six-furlong races at Churchill Downs, there is a 100-foot “run-up” to the timer. This essentially gives the field a “head-start” and can produce some eye-opening fractions. When Kona Gold won the Sprint over this track in 2000 the early fractions were 20:82 and 43:56, producing a final time of 1:07.77. If the weather is good and the track is “tight” this year, don’t be surprised by the fractions that will be posted.

Three fillies have won this race – Desert Stormer (’95), Safely Kept (’90) and Very Subtle (’87) – but with the addition of the Filly & Mare Sprint their participation in this race would appear to be a thing of the past. That’s unfortunate.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: Six Furlongs on Dirt

Post Time: 5:20PM (ET), Saturday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – this is the most popular distance at Churchill Downs, with 152 races run at six furlongs during the last two race meets. There have been 63 wire-to-wire winners (41%). The average running line for the winner shows them just 1.2 lengths behind the leaders at the second call, and an even closer 0.4 lengths back at the third call. 125 winners (82%) at this distance have been within 0.50 lengths of the lead at the third call, and only one winner gained more than 4.5 lengths from that point.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – when this race has been held at Churchill Downs the profile shows the race winners a little further back early, 2.5 lengths back at the second call, but it also backs up the fact that winners need to be “right there” at the third call – just 0.7 lengths back. 5-of-6 Sprint winners on this track were leading the field or within a 0.50 lengths of the lead at the third call.

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – runners starting from the rail won just 8-of-152 races (5%) during the last two race meets, and 50% of those were betting favorites – indicating they were good enough heading into the race to overcome the draw. It doesn’t get any easier on the far outside, where runners starting from post 12 won just two races!

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – in six previous editions of the Sprint run at Churchill Downs, only Thor’s Echo was able to win from the inside post. It is important to note that he was the leader at the second call, proving he had enough speed to avoid getting shuffled back leaving the gate. The outside has proved the place to be, with 4 winners starting from posts 9-11.

Betting Angles – 2-of-6 editions of the Sprint at Churchill Downs have been won by the betting favorite, the last being Kona Gold (9/5) in 2000. But overall, betting favorites have performed poorly in this race, winning just 6-of-26 editions (23%). Horseplayers looking for value have found a playable race, with 12 winners scoring at odds of 11/1 or higher. While only three horses that held the lead at the second call have gone on to win this race in the last 11 years, it is not exactly a haven for deep closers (Midnight Lute notwithstanding). The six-furlong distance at Churchill Downs favors early and positional speed, and that has held up on championship weekend. All six winners of the Sprint at Churchill Downs were coming off races on conventional dirt, at either six or seven furlongs, and every winner had finished on-the-board in their previous start.