Horse Betting World

Breeders´ Cup Turf Sprint

The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint joined the lineup back in 2008, along with the Breeders’ Cup Marathon and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. In the inaugural edition California Flag burned up after dueling through insane early fractions (:20.73 and :41.81). He was back to try it again in 2009, and after a much easier time up front (:21.50 and :43.09) he scored an easy win as the 3/1 betting favorite.

This year at Churchill Downs the Turf Sprint will be run under much different circumstances – most notably the distance. The first two editions of this race were run at 6 ½ furlongs, and this year it will be a five-furlong dash. What that means in the most basic terms is obvious – speed types won’t have to carry their speed as far, and closing types will have 1 ½ fewer furlongs to run down the leaders. The entire dynamic of this race may be changed simply because of the change in distance.

Landing on a winner in this race will be paramount for bettors, as the Turf Sprint is the third leg of a $1,000,000 Guaranteed Pick Four, and it is the first leg of a $2,000,000 Guaranteed Pick Six.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint facts to consider in your handicapping:

Distance: Five Furlongs on turf

Post Time: 3:15PM (ET), Saturday

Churchill Downs Track Profile for this distance – over the last two race meets there have been 31 races run at this distance over the Matt Winn turf course, producing 19 wire-to-wire winners (61%). The average running line for the winner shows them 1.2 lengths behind the leaders after the second call, and just 0.4 lengths back at the third call. Only one winner has rallied from more than 4.5 lengths back at the second call to win, and no winner made up more than 3.0 lengths from the third call. All told, 24 winners (77%) at this distance held the lead at the third call.

Breeders’ Cup Track Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance – no previous editions run at this racetrack.

Churchill Downs Post Position Profile for this distance – runners breaking from the inside post won just 2-of-31 races at this distance. Both went wire-to-wire, and one of those came in a five-horse field. There were only two winners who started outside post 7.

Breeders’ Cup Post Position Profile at Churchill Downs for this distance no previous editions run at this racetrack.

Betting Angles – Turf sprints, in general, are among the most exciting races – especially when they are run at the five-furlong distance. The racing action is over in less than one minute. We saw extreme speed set up the closers in 2008, and a relaxing pace allowed California Flag to lead all the way in 2009. Early speed plays a very important role in turf sprints at Churchill Downs – you don’t have to be on the lead but you never want to be too far behind. There simply isn’t enough time to make up large margins in the stretch. Runners starting from the inside post must have enough early speed to avoid being shuffled back, and runners starting from far outside posts are always at risk of being hung wide given a short run into the far turn.