Horse Betting World

California, Florida Breds Battle for $1.8 Million

By Mike Dempsey

The ninth Sunshine Millions takes place on Saturday at Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park, with $1.8 million in purses up for grabs along with bragging rights between the two states.

Well, that is what was originally intended nine years ago when track owner Frank Stronach came up with the idea. There was a point system to determine a winner between California and Florida.

However, I could not tell you which state won in any of those years, and there is not a horseplayer out there that really cares.

What we do care about is that we have six outstanding betting races, three at each track.

Here is a look at who I like in each of the six races making up the Sunshine Millions:

Gulfstream Park

Filly & Mare Sprint: Belle of the Hall makes her four-year-old debut here and cuts back to a sprint after fading to finish a well beaten seventh in the Gazelle (G1) going nine furlongs. The filly won her first three career starts sprinting including the Jostle at Parx, then made a mild late rally to finish third in the Test (G1). She did not take to the tight turns at Charles Town, then rebounded with a smart win in the Catinca in October. The cut back here should suit and the Albertrani barn is 20% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. This filly should be a fair price in this spot.

Filly & Mare Turf: Askbut I Won’ttell made a good late rally to get up late and win the My Charmer (G3) last out at Calder, and is perfect at nine furlongs on turf in two trips. Two back she won the Cardinal Handicap (G3) at Churchill Downs in a sharp effort. The runner up in that race was Kiss Mine, who came back to win the ungraded My Charmer at Turfway Park on Dec. 11. She broke her maiden over the grass here back in ’09. She should get a good pace set up in here and comes into the race very sharp.

Classic: Duke of Mischief makes his first start since running sixth in the Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs in November. The David Fawkes trainee had a productive ’10 overall, winning the Iselin (G3), Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and the off the turf Ft. Lauderdale (G3), which was over the main track at Gulfstream Park. The barn is strong bringing runners back off the bench, hitting at a 28% clip (with a +ROI) with horses returning off a 61-180 day layoff. His form did tail off toward the end of the year, but he has run well fresh in the past and this looks like a good spot.

Santa Anita

Sprint: Cost of Freedom is certainly the one to beat, but 10 of his 11 career starts have come over synthetic surfaces, so let’s go with the new shooter Apriority, who has blossomed since going to dirt. The colt failed to break his maiden in Southern California in five starts and was shipped to trainer David Fawkes in Florida. After catching yielding turf, he has reeled off three outstanding efforts on the main track. He is in deeper here but still appears to have some upside.

Turf: The Usual Q.T. came up short as the chalk last out in the San Gabriel (G2), which was his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). In that outing the gelding was only beaten a neck by Eclipse Award winner Gio Ponti and two lengths by Goldikova. The gelding is three for four over the Santa Anita turf and he just needs some firmer ground to turn the tables on Jeranimo, who has really looked good in two starts since switching to grass.

Distaff: Ultra Blend is coming off back to back wins against California breds on synthetic surfaces, but she also has a stakes win on dirt, and she come sin here very sharp for the Sherman barn. She might get overlooked on the tote in this spot and offer decent value for the win. Evening Jewel did not fire last out on turf for her third loss in a row. She looks like she may have lost a step, and she has never won on dirt. However, one of her dirt tries was a nose loss to Blind Luck in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She is a tricky read here at a short price.

Make sure you check us out on Facebook and Twitter, and next week horsebettingworld.com will feature full card analysis from Joey Adams and Michael Dempsey for major tracks.