Horse Betting World

Favorites – They Don’t Always Win

By Joey Adams

If you are a “regular” at your local track or simulcast outlet, you’ve undoubtedly endured days like December 29 at Tampa Bay Downs or January 23 at Fair Grounds. On those days the betting favorites dominated, winning 8-of-10 races on the card. Hopefully you’ve also been present on days like January 15 at Aqueduct, when betting favorites were shut out the entire card (0-for-9).

With betting favorites winning around 33% nationwide, nearly every day at the track sees its share of winning favorites. But they don’t win every race. Take a moment to consider that strike rate from a different angle – if 33% of betting favorites win, that means that 67% of betting favorites LOSE!

Isolating those vulnerable favorites, and being in a position to capitalize, is one way to turn a profit in this game.

Racetrack programs, the Daily Racing Form, and/or many other information resources readily identify the rate of winning favorites for a particular meet. Why stop there – when you only have the information that is in the hands of every other horseplayer? As I do in many other areas, I like to break down the obvious information to see if it uncovers any hidden “angles” that can lead to more winners.

The information below has been gathered since December 2, 2010. Rather than rely on an “overall” win percentage for a particular meet, the information below illustrates the win percentage of betting favorites in a variety of categories. See if you can identify any scenarios that should draw the attention of horseplayers looking to “beat the chalk.”

>> AQUEDUCT
Average Field Size … 7.7
Main Track Sprints … 170 races, 80 winning favorites … (47%)
Main Track Routes … 110 races, 37 winning favorites … (34%)

>> FAIR GROUNDS
Average Field Size … 8.7
Main Track Sprints … 214 races, 82 winning favorites … (38%)
Main Track Routes … 110 races, 45 winning favorites … (41%)
Turf Sprints … 26 races, 11 winning favorites … (42%)
Turf Routes … 61 races, 19 winning favorites … (31%)

>> GULFSTREAM PARK
Average Field Size … 9.9
Main Track Sprints … 56 races, 19 winning favorites … (34%)
Main Track Routes … 48 races, 16 winning favorites … (33%)
Turf Sprints … 7 races, 3 winning favorites … (43%)
Turf Routes … 42 races, 8 winning favorites … (19%)

>> OAKLAWN PARK
Average Field Size … 9.6
Main Track Sprints … 36 races, 7 winning favorites … (19%)
Main Track Routes … 19 races, 5 winning favorites … (26%)

>> TAMPA BAY DOWNS
Average Field Size … 9.2
Main Track Sprints … 149 races, 58 winning favorites … (39%)
Main Track Routes … 51 races, 17 winning favorites … (33%)
Turf Sprints … 7 races, 2 winning favorites … (29%)
Turf Routes … 57 races, 22 winning favorites … (39%)

>> TURFWAY PARK
Average Field Size … 9.8
Main Track Sprints … 169 races, 52 winning favorites … (31%)
Main Track Routes … 120 races, 36 winning favorites … (30%)

Notice any potential scenarios where horseplayers can play, with confidence, against the betting favorite? It certainly isn’t main track sprints at Aqueduct, where playing against the public choice is little more than a 50/50 gamble.

But how about turf routes at Gulfstream Park? After 42 races going long on the grass, only 19% of betting favorites are finding the winner’s circle! That means if you’re only opinion on the race is “the favorite won’t win,” you’ve been right 80% of the time.

Horseplayers should also take a look at Oaklawn Park, where favorites have had trouble winning. Why? Most likely because the meet only recently started and horseplayers have yet to get an accurate gauge of the many shippers who have arrived, or get a clear picture of how the track is playing, leading to many “false favorites” at the betting windows. Take advantage of this opportunity before the tide begins to change.