Horse Betting World

HBW 101: Betting First Time Starters

By Mike Dempsey

This is a second in a series of handicapping articles presented by Horse Betting World to help new and intermediate horseplayers to make money playing the ponies.

The topic today is first time starters. Some horseplayers I know run as far as they can when they see a maiden race made up with mostly first time starters, but those are some of favorite races to handicap.

With a little bit of research, you can have an edge over your fellow horseplayers.

Today we will touch on three topics when it comes to first timers:

1. Connections
2. Pedigree
3. Workouts

By connections I mean the trainer and jockey. It is common knowledge who some of the best trainers are with young horses.

Two trainers that come to mind are Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher.

However, a straight win bet on all of Asmussen’s first time starters dating back three years would produce just a return of $1.45.

Pletcher’s return over the past three years is $1.75.

While both trainers win their fair share of maiden races with first time starters, neither shows a long term profit, and they often get too much attention at the betting windows.

I like to look for trainers that turn a profit and where we might find a price.

Richard Violette is a solid trainer on the New York circuit, and has hit at a 21% clip with first time starters, with a positive return on investment of $2.36.

Christophe Clement is best known for developing turf horses, but did you know he hits at an 18% clip with first time starters with a positive return of $2.11?

Look for trainers that show a profit with first time starters, and those are not always the “big name” trainers.

One of my favorite angles when handicapping maiden races is looking at pedigree.

On the sire side, I like to see a sire with a debut win rate of at least 14%. A few of my favorite win early type sires are Storm Cat, Meadowlake, and Elusive Quality.

I spend more time on the dam side, and this is where you may be able to uncover nuggets of information that other handicappers do not have.

What did the dam do on the racetrack and what has she already produced?

It is actually pretty easy to find out.

BRIS provides dam information in their past performances including how many starters and winners, as well as average winning distance, and will also tell you if the dam was a winner or a stakes winner.

Daily Racing Form provides a report called the Sibling Summary, which gives you detailed information including the dam’s race record and the race record of all of her offspring.

Another good source for pedigree information is the Pedigree Thoroughbred Database at http://www.pedigreequery.com.

Why is this important?

If you are deciding on two first time starters, and one is out of a unraced mare that has dropped six previous foals but only one winner, and the other mare is a stakes winner that has dropped six foals, all winners including a pair of stakes winners, who would you prefer to have your money on?

Workouts are an important handicapping tool as well, but for me they rank below the connections and the pedigree.

In Southern California workouts probably rank the highest among the handicapping tools, and there are several clockers that sell the information.

On the New York circuit that I cover, workouts do not seem nearly as important.

I do however like to see a steady string of works, spaced seven days apart, with at least one gate drill.

The Daily Racing Form ranks the works, with the fastest work that morning at the distance getting a “bullet.”

I don’t necessarily need to see bullets, but I do like to see at least several of the works rank high.

If you want to know more on workouts, clocker Bruno De Julio wrote “Bruno on Workouts: Exposing the Mystery”, which will give you a clocker’s perspective on the importance of morning works.

The important thing to remember when handicapping maiden races and first time starters is the fact there is information out there, and with some extra work and effort, the information can give you an edge over your fellow horseplayer, which can be enough to put your bankroll squarely in the black

Another good way to make smarter choices when playing the ponies is to visit horsebettingworld.com more often, and check us out on Twitter and Facebook.