Horse Betting World

Just Win, “Willy”

By Joey Adams

Racing returns to Hot Springs, Arkansas on Friday, where cool temperatures are expected to usher in the 2011 thoroughbred meet at Oaklawn Park. The action begins at 1:05 PM (CT), with the opening-day feature being the 23rd running of the $75,000 The Fifth Season.

Live racing at Oaklawn Park will continue until April 16, and daily coverage can be found on HRTV.

Friday’s The Fifth Season drew a compact field of six going 1 1/16 miles. There isn’t an abundance of speed in the lineup, yet this distance produced only 20% wire-to-wire winners in 2010, lowest of the distances run at Oaklawn Park. That trend should suit the morning-line favorite just fine.

Here is a look at the field:

1-WIN WILLY … (8/5) … Clearly the class of the race. He makes his first start since the Clark Handicap-G1 at Churchill Downs in late November, a race in which he finished 5th (moved up to 4th via DQ). He shows only two workouts during his time away, but he has consistently run well “fresh” in the past. He was a daylight winner of the local Razorback Handicap-G3 last season, only to be disqualified for a post-race medication infraction. His last three starts over a fast track at Oaklawn have resulted in Beyer Speed Figures of 103, 102 and 101 – no one else in the field has ever run that fast. Anything close to his morning-line price may be a gift.

2-STACHYS … (3/1) … Shows four wins in seven starts since joining the barn of Michael Biehler, most recently taking the $150,000 Zip Park Derby. He’s 3-for-3 under today’s rider Eddie Martin, but this is a big step up the ladder – he’s been racing at Zia Park, Remington Park, Narragansett Park, Assiniboia Downs, Canterbury Downs and Prairie Meadows. Top Beyer Speed Figure of 90 ranks behind many of these, so that 3/1 morning-line price looks a little short.

3-ATONED … (6/1) … Unlike a fine whiskey, this six-year-old just hasn’t gotten better with age. He comes in having won only once in 14 starts over the last two years, and he didn’t finish better than 3rd in any start in 2010. His most recent effort was improved, and he does have a fitness edge over most in here. That being said, there’s little else to get excited about.

4-CRYPTOLIGHT … (7/2) … Consistent runner missed the board just once in nine starts last year, winning three times. When last seen he was crushing the field in the $125,000 Mountaineer Mile in early November. He figures to be a forward factor in a race lacking real pace, and he’s no stranger to these parts – a multiple winner over the track and 3rd in this race last year.

5-NORTHERN GIANT … (5/1) … Switches gears after running over the turf in four consecutive races, notching a win at Keeneland two starts back in a “key race.” Broke his maiden over this track last February by more than 11 lengths, doing so at today’s distance. It must be noted that win came over a sloppy track. In six starts over a “fast” surface he has a weak 6-0-0-2 record.

6-KATE’S MAIN MAN … (10/1) … The longest price in the field could be the one setting the early pace. He gets the services of Calvin Borel, back in action after being sidelined with a broken jaw suffered in November. Owns the lowest “career best” speed figure in the field, and both wins in 2010 came against Iowa-bred company. Overmatched on class, but sometimes that is when Borel is at his best.

>> SELECTION … 1-WIN WILLY