Horse Betting World

The Alabama is not a Two Horse Race

By Aaron Huber

While this year’s edition of the Alabama has already been declared a two horse race by most racing commentators, a closer look reveals a more competitive race than first meets the eye. The two best three year old fillies in the country, Blind Luck and Devil May Care, will be there along with four others looking to upset either one of them. The Alabama is a 1 ¼ mile race and most of these fillies have never been asked to run that far. Determining which horse has both the speed and the stamina to win will be the key to making a smart wager. Track Betting

1. Acting Happy 12/1

This lightly raced Empire Maker filly will be making her sixth career start. Her last effort was a third place finish behind Devil May Care in the Coaching Club American Oaks. In that race she was expected to do well after being sent off at odds of 7/2. She had a horrible trip after being bumped at the start and was forced to race three wide around both turns. Now she gets the rail which has been producing winners at a 29% clip in dirt routes. While she hasn’t yet shown the speed of other horses in this race she may be poised for her biggest performance to date. At 12/1 she is a huge overlay on the morning line and is worth serious consideration.

2. Devil May Care 7/5

The morning line favorite, Devil May Care, will be looking for her third win in a row after capturing the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks. She is the only one in this group that has raced at 1 ¼ miles after being the lone filly to start in the Kentucky Derby. Though she finished 10th in the Derby it was a rough race run over a sloppy track. Her grandsire A.P. Indy is a proven classics winner, so the distance should not be a problem here. Her regular rider Johnny Velazquez is leading the jockey standings at Saratoga this year and has been winning with 22% of his mounts. Look for him to be extra keen here in order to make up after his narrow loss on Quality Road in the Whitney. She will be short price at post time, but well deserving of favoritism.

3. Tizahit 20/1

As the longest shot on the morning line, this filly is making a huge step up from the optional claiming ranks. Her last win came in the Demoiselle at Aqueduct, but that was back in November. This year she has only raced twice at lower levels with little success. Her owners however, Jim and Susan Hill, shocked the world last week when they sent out Miami Deco at odds of 65/1 in the Breeder’s Stakes at Woodbine. He won and paid $132 to win. Only bet on Tizahit if you think lightning can strike twice.

4. Blind Luck 8/5

This California based horse has been making waves outside of her home territory with razor thin victories in the Kentucky and Delaware Oaks. In the Delaware Oaks, her last race, she produced a lifetime high speed figure of 114 which is only matched here by Havre De Grace, who was caught at the wire in a tight photo finish. That figure came on a sloppy sealed track, and only time will tell if Blind Luck has an affinity towards the mud or if she is really that fast. Another concern here is that this will be jockey Joel Rosario’s first mount ever at Saratoga. While he is certainly a capable rider, this adds a little uncertainty into the mix. Horse Bet

5. Connie and Michael 10/1

Connie and Michael finished as a credible second to Devil May Care in the Mother Goose, which was also her last start. She had to sit out the CCA Oaks due to hoof issues, but is now feeling better and has been training great at Saratoga. Connie and Michael will have to stretch out considerably to be competitive here as she has never raced further than 1 1/16 miles. Horse Betting

6. Havre de Grace 4/1

Havre de Grace ran a great race in the Delaware Oaks that also earned her a top speed figure of 114. Because this group features a lack of early speed, Have de Grace could find herself being the frontrunner. That isn’t good news when you’ll have Devil May Care racing right behind you. She will also be making a big leap from 1 1/16 to 1 1/4 miles here. Trainer Anthony Dutrow has been saddling a lot of winners at a 25% rate during this meet but will need a lot to go his way for Havre de Grace to win the Alabama.