Horse Betting World

The Road to Louisville, Kentucky

By Joey Adams

72 days and counting until the eyes of thoroughbred racing are glued to Churchill Downs for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Over the next ten weeks every three-year-old with hopes of making the starting gate on May 7 will need to chart a course towards Louisville.

From coast to coast, every trainer with a potential Kentucky Derby betting contender has laid out a plan they hope will lead to Churchill Downs on “The First Saturday in May.” But do horses from certain locations or tracks hold an edge once they arrive in Louisville?

Using the last five Kentucky Derby’s for reference, let’s take a look at where the Derby winners, as well as those who finished second and third, made their most recent starts.

2010

Win … Super Saver … Arkansas Derby-G1 (OP), Tampa Bay Derby-G3 (TAM)
Place … Ice Box … Florida Derby-G1 (GP), Fountain of Youth-G2 (GP)
Show … Paddy O’Prado … Toyota Blue Grass-G1 (KEE), Palm Beach Stakes-G3 (GP)

2009

Win … Mine That Bird … Sunland Derby (SUN), Borderland Derby (SUN)
Place … Pioneerof the Nile … Santa Anita Derby-G1 (SA), San Felipe-G2 (SA)
Show … Musket Man … Illinois Derby-G2 (HAW), Tampa Bay Derby-G3 (TAM)

2008

Win … Big Brown … Florida Derby-G1 (GP), Allowance (GP)
Place … Eight Belles … Fantasy-G2 (OP), Honeybee-G3 (OP)
Show … Denis of Cork … Illinois Derby-G2 (HAW), Southwest Stakes-G3 (OP)

2007

Win … Street Sense … Toyota Blue Grass-G1 (KEE), Tampa Bay Derby-G3 (TAM)
Place … Hard Spun … Lane’s End-G2 (TP), Southwest Stakes (OP)
Show … Curlin … Arkansas Derby-G1 (OP), Rebel Stakes-G3 (OP)

2006

Win … Barbaro … Florida Derby-G1 (GP), Holy Bull Stakes-G3 (GP)
Place … Bluegrass Cat … Toyota Blue Grass-G1 (KEE), Tampa Bay Derby-G3 (TAM)
Show … Steppenwolfer … Arkansas Derby-G2 (OP), Rebel Stakes-G3 (OP)

The horse betting information above gives us a look at the last 30 prep races for the top three Kentucky Derby finishers. These 30 races came at 8 different racetracks, with Oaklawn Park (9 preps) and Gulfstream Park (7 preps) leading the way. They were followed by Tampa Bay Downs (4 preps) and Keeneland (3 preps).

It is interesting to note that four of the last five Kentucky Derby winners show a recent prep in Florida – either the Florida Derby or Tampa Bay Derby. In addition, 8 of the top 15 finishers above show a recent prep race in Florida.

In stark contrast, only one horse from California managed to hit the board over the last five years – and NO horse showing a recent prep in New York finished among the top three.

While horses from California may have a bigger presence in the Kentucky Derby now that the major preps at Santa Anita are being run over conventional dirt, it may continue to pay off at the windows to lean towards horses who, at one point or another, made an earlier appearance in Florida or Arkansas.

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