Horse Betting World

Who Wants to Lead at Gulfstream?

By Joey Adams

Thursday’s feature race (Race 8 ) at Gulfstream Park is a one-mile turf affair for “non-winners of three other than” with an optional claiming price of $80,000. The rail will be set at 72 feet. It doesn’t take an expert handicapper to see there is no speed in the race. But in this instance, does that really matter?

There have been 11 races run at this distance at the Gulfstream Park meet, resulting in just a single wire-to-wire winner – and that was a 41/1 bomber. Every other winner was 3.5 lengths, or more, back at the second call. That profile would seem to fit every runner in this field. It’s also worth noting that only two winners at this distance have started outside of post 5.

No one ever said this was an easy game!

1-BLACK SCORPION … (8/1) … Fits the profile on an “inside closer” and his most recent race resulted in a daylight win. But that came back in October and he went 12 months between victories.

2-OIL MAN … (10/1) … Running style is a solid fit but this distance is probably too short for his best. He also hasn’t been to the winner’s circle since June ’09 when he won the Cinema Handicap-G3 at Hollywood Park.

3-REB … (4/1) … Talented late-runner has the right running style and plenty of class, having won the American Derby-G2 at Arlington Park. Of course the handicapper must overlook the fact that he hasn’t been to the races since August ’09 and his trainer hasn’t exactly been on fire (10-0-0-2).

4-BALTIMORE BOB … (5/1) … Comes off a strong 2010 campaign where he won a pair of minor stakes and was beaten a nose in another. He’s a previous winner over this turf course and owns a super 5-for-7 record at this distance. Been training at Tampa Bay Downs, so it’s a sign of confidence that he shows up here.

5-ROGUE VICTORY … (6/1) … Nearly overcame a horrible start to win under identical conditions 12 days ago. Hits hard against this level of competition and owns more wins at Gulfstream than the rest of the field combined. Quick turnaround is a positive sign.

6-SR. HENRY … (6/1) … If you look at all the past performances showing for every runner in this field, he is the only one to have ever been a “pace setter.” He did so at Saratoga last summer and beat everyone except Rogue Victory. He went wire-to-wire in winning an allowance over the local main track last season. Although the turf course hasn’t been favoring frontrunners, when there’s only one in the field they must be respected.

7-LUCAS BRADY … (15/1) … He’s yet to win over the grass and his most recent win came 12 months ago in a sprint against much easier. On the positive side he shows a few competitive efforts using the “main-track sprint to turf route” angle and he’s getting a big rider switch to Paco Lopez – who was on fire here last week, winning 11 races.

8-CALIMONCO … (12/1) … Made only two starts after July of last year, both against this kind, and he wasn’t a real factor either time. His only win on turf since 2009 came in a seven-furlong affair against easier at Woodbine, where he was all-out to win by a head. Bill Mott and Kent Desormeaux teamed for a pair of wins last week, but that’s the most attractive angle.

9-BANGALORE GOLD … (5/2) … Minor winner in Ireland has shown promise in two U.S. starts, despite having all kinds of trouble leaving the starting gate. Not convinced he’s much better than others in here, especially considering outside posts have struggled at this distance.

>> SELECTIONS … 5-Rogue Victory, 6-Sr. Henry, 9-Bangalore Gold, 4-Baltimore Bob